US Think Tank Warns of Moderate Risk of India-Pakistan Armed Conflict in 2026

A prominent US think tank has flagged a “moderate likelihood” of renewed armed conflict between nuclear-armed neighbors India and Pakistan in 2026, primarily triggered by heightened terrorist activity.

The warning comes from the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) in its annual report, “Conflicts to Watch in 2026,” released by the Center for Preventive Action. Based on a survey of American foreign policy experts conducted in November 2025, the report ranks the India-Pakistan contingency in Tier II – indicating moderate likelihood and moderate impact on US interests.

The specific scenario outlined is: “Renewed armed conflict between India and Pakistan due to heightened terrorist activity.”

This assessment follows a tense year in 2025, marked by a deadly attack in Pahalgam, on April 22. India attributed the massacre to Lashkar-e-Taiba and its offshoot.

In response, India launched Operation Sindoor on May 7, conducting precision strikes on nine alleged terror camps in Pakistan and Azad Kashmir. The operation escalated into a brief but intense four-day confrontation involving airstrikes, missiles, drones, and artillery exchanges – the most serious clash since the 1999 Kargil War.

A ceasefire was agreed upon on May 10 through direct military channels, though both sides claimed victories and downplayed losses. The truce has held, but underlying tensions persist, fueled by ongoing militant activities, intelligence reports of active terror infrastructure, and an emerging arms buildup.

India recently approved defense procurements worth Rs 79,000 crore, including drones and advanced missiles. Pakistan, in turn, has engaged in talks with Turkey and China for new drones and air defense systems to address vulnerabilities exposed during the conflict.

The CFR report also highlights a separate “moderate likelihood” of armed hostilities between Pakistan and Afghanistan in 2026 due to resurgent cross-border militant attacks, though with lower impact on US interests.

Experts emphasize that the survey is not a prediction but an expert-driven assessment to guide US policymakers on potential flashpoints. With two nuclear powers involved, any escalation could have severe regional and global repercussions.